Former F1 star Juan Pablo Montoya believes that Max Verstappen is now facing the same problem that Lewis Hamilton encountered in 2022. Red Bull’s dominant run in the ground effect era risks ending with the implementation of new technical regulations. The Dutchman has already accumulated four Drivers’ Championship titles since pipping Hamilton on the final lap of the 2021 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, and the 27-year-old remains in play for a fifth consecutive crown in 2025, despite stiff competition from Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris.

However, Red Bull’s car performance is already sliding back, and the Milton Keynes squad sits fourth in the Constructors’ Championship standings. If this regression continues into the new technical regulations period in 2026, Verstappen’s chances of adding to his trophy cabinet are slim.

This is a problem that Hamilton has already experienced. The legendary Brit collected six of his seven World Championships in the turbo-hybrid era with Mercedes, but Toto Wolff’s outfit couldn’t master the new generation of cars when the regulations changed in 2022. Since then, he has accumulated just two Grand Prix victories.

According to F1 icon Montoya, Verstappen might meet the same fate. “The question is the 2026 rules,” he told CasinoHawks. “The question is not how good Max is. You can say Lewis won seven. But Lewis was in the right car for six of them. And the other one as well, McLaren.

“He left McLaren at the right time and went to Mercedes at the right time. So, can Red Bull still dominate with the new rules with no Adrian Newey? This is the first time Red Bull is going to go to a new regulation without Newey. That’s the million-dollar question.

“I think that's probably more in the back of Jos [Verstappen’s] mind than Max's. Jos has been around longer and understands it better, and he understands how important it is to have the right person building the car. Newey is outstanding. If somebody deserves a trophy for championships, it should be him more than anybody else.”

Of course, if Red Bull can’t provide Verstappen with a car capable of fighting for championships in 2026 and beyond, the Dutchman might opt to chance his luck elsewhere. He won’t be short of suitors if that is the case.

“Honestly, if I were Max, and if you're thinking 2026-2027, you want to be with Mercedes, personally speaking,” Montoya continued. “If I could pick anywhere to go, I would go to Mercedes. If I were looking at 2027 onwards to say 2030, I think Aston [Martin] might be the place to be.”