Trump's MAGA base is in crisis over the Epstein files. Could it cost Republicans the midterms?

Published: 2025-07-17 10:33:01 | Views: 8


As some Donald Trump supporters express anger with the U.S. president over his administration's handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files, he says he "no longer" wants their support — and he might not get it during the 2026 midterms.

Trump and members of his administration have long promised to release any documents related to Epstein, a convicted child sex offender and former financier who died in jail in 2019. The files allegedly include a "client list," commonly believed by conspiracy theorists to be a record of politicians and celebrities associated with Epstein's alleged sex-trafficking operation.

But his administration's backtracking on the issue has ignited a new wave of distrust. Attorney General Pam Bondi has sidestepped questions after teasing that an Epstein list was on her desk; the Justice Department has said there's no list; and Trump himself has downplayed the issue.

That's seen by some of his supporters as a betrayal, because Trump positioned himself "as somebody who truly was going to fight for them and basically unlock what they consider to be a conspiracy that the government has propagated over the past many years," said Dave Levinthal, an investigative journalist based in Washington, D.C.

That includes an unproven theory that Trump himself is on the client list, given his association with Epstein in the 1990s and early 2000s.

"Jeffrey Epstein is not something that is top of mind for most people in the United States. But it is top of mind for a narrow slice of the electorate and certainly a very vocal part of Donald Trump's base," Levinthal said. "That is very concerning for Donald Trump because it can hurt him politically."

Two man and two women standing together, both men with their arms around the woman, all smiling
Trump, left, and Melania Trump are shown with Jeffrey Epstein and his associate, Ghislaine Maxwell, at Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Fla., in February 2000. (Getty Images)

Why some MAGA supporters are feeling betrayed

Trump has cultivated a base that includes people prone to conspiracy theories and mistrust of institutions, said Joseph Uscinski, co-author of American Conspiracy Theories and a political scientist at the University of Miami.

That's partly because the president has pushed so many conspiracies himself, from propagating "birther" lies about former U.S. president Barack Obama to his claim that the 2020 presidential election was rigged.

"It's only natural that the folks in this coalition are going to buy into Jeffrey Epstein conspiracy theories, whether it's that he was murdered or that there's some secret list full of Hollywood celebrities and government officials who have been engaged in some sort of blackmail scheme or sex trafficking," Uscinski said.

WATCH | U.S. attorney general should release 'credible' information on Epstein, Trump says:

Trump says attorney general should release ‘credible’ information on Epstein

Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration pulled back on its pledge to release documents it had suggested would provide major revelations about accused sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein and his alleged clientele. In an effort to contain the fallout, Trump says Attorney General Pam Bondi should release what ‘she thinks is credible’ information on Epstein.

"Maybe such a list exists, but the problem is the beliefs have been running far ahead of the available evidence. And that's the issue here — that you have a lot of people in that coalition predisposed to the conspiratorial explanation before the evidence."

Trump's own strategy has been to downplay the issue and fuel more conspiracy theories around the purported files. Most recently, he suggested they're a hoax created by his political foes, including former presidents Obama, Joe Biden and Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, former FBI director James Comey and former CIA director John Brennan.

"Normally, conspiracy theories are about accusing the people in power of conspiring. Now Trump and his coalition are the ones in power. So it's awkward," Uscinski said. "Who do they have to blame? It's really only themselves."

Mounting calls from supporters for transparency

A number of high-profile Trump supporters and associates have warned that any perceived lack of transparency from his administration would have negative consequences.

Far-right commentator and 9/11 conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer has been especially vocal, calling on Bondi to resign her attorney general's post, while comedian Dave Smith accused Trump of "actively" covering up "a giant child rapist ring."

LISTEN | Are the Epstein files a closed case?:

Front BurnerCase closed on the 'Epstein list'?


Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who is also known for pushing conspiracies, said that a coverup would cross "a red line" for many Trump supporters — while InfoWars host and Sandy Hook conspiracy theorist Alex Jones said that Trump's Epstein problem "is not going away ... it's out of control."

But other supporters, like Mike Davis, a Trump-affiliated lawyer, have defended the president and the Justice Department against criticism, saying an Epstein list doesn't exist.

All the while, Democrats — including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Maryland Rep. Jamie Raskin, Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff and Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego — are putting pressure on Trump to follow up on his promise to release the files. Some are calling on members of the Trump administration to testify before the House judiciary committee.

Republicans facing midterm losses: analyst

It's not the first recent instance of Trump ruffling feathers within his own base — some are concerned that he hasn't followed through on a promise that his administration wouldn't get involved in foreign wars.

Some of the president's supporters have expressed frustration over his recent deal with NATO to supply weapons to Ukraine. And his base was deeply divided when the U.S. military, assisting Israel, bombed Iran last month.

With Epstein, Trump faces "a much more dangerous situation" than the blowback he received over his country's interference in Iran, said Evan Siegfried, a Republican strategist and commentator in New York.

"There was a much more clear divide within the base over what was right and what was wrong with Iran. With this, it gets to the whole core tenet of Trump's appeal, which is that he is that outsider fighting against the so-called elite."

A man with white hair and white beard.
Epstein is shown in a mugshot. Trump and members of his administration have long promised to release any documents related to the convicted child sex offender and former financier who died in jail in 2019 while awaiting trial on sex-trafficking charges. (New York State Division of Criminal Justice Services/Reuters)

A revolt over Epstein could have serious ramifications for Trump and the Republicans during the midterm elections in November 2026, Siegfried said.

Some states will be decided by a few hundred or thousand votes, he said, and the party is relying both on swing voters and a strong turnout from its base to retain control of the lower chamber.

"For a few hundred and a few thousand voters in one particular swing congressional district to say, 'I'm staying home and I'm not gonna vote, I'm not excited to vote,' that could make all the difference, strategically," Siegfried said.

Steve Bannon, a convicted felon and conspiracy theorist who served as a top Trump adviser during the president's first term, recently said the Republicans could post serious losses in the midterms if they don't offer more clarity on the Epstein case.

Siegfried said he agrees with that analysis. "It doesn't matter if what they believe is true. It's about getting them out there to vote and actually support Republican candidates, and the House could flip as a result."

There's still a long runway to the midterms. But Siegfried said the only way the Republicans can crawl out of this unscathed is to have an administration official who is trusted by Trump's base "put everything out in the sunlight."

The current strategy — which has included Trump calling parts of his base "stupid people", "weaklings" and "past supporters" who've been conned by the Democrats — is only fuelling more questions, he said.

"People are going to say, 'Wait a minute, I'm not a past supporter. I have a legitimate question.' You dismiss these people at your own peril."



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