End of Rwanda scheme leading to rise in small boat arrivals, claim Tories – UK politics live | Politics
Tories accuse Home Office of 'blaming weather' for rise in small boat arrivals, saying Rwanda cancellation real explanation
Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, has issued a response to the Home Office report about the link between weather conditions and small boat crossing numbers. (See 10.10am.) He is accusing the government of “blaming the weather” for numbers rising. He says:
Labour seems to think praying for bad weather is a good border security strategy. This is a weak government, with no plan to end illegal immigrants crossing the channel.
They should never have cancelled the Rwanda removals deterrent before it even started. That’s why 2025 is the worst year in history for illegal crossings - not the weather.
Blaming the weather for the highest ever crossing numbers so far this year is the border security equivalent of a lazy student claiming “the dog ate my homework”.
Key events
Liberal Democrats call for Thames Water to be put in special administration after preferred bidder pulls out of rescue deal
There will be an urgent question in the Commons at 12.30pm on Thames Water. As Julia Kollewe and Jasper Jolly report, its future is in doubt because the US private equity group KKR has pulled out of a deal to support it.
Commenting on behalf of the Liberal Democrats, Charlie Maynard said:
The government needs to bite the bullet, and put Thames Water into special administration, so its unsustainable debt can be written down and the interests of Thames Waters 16 million customers can be protected.
While Thames Water is being allowed to keep piling up more and more debt, customers are paying the price in massive interest payments. This is totally unfair. The creditors who have heaped billions in debt onto the company should now pay to sort this mess out. This can only be achieved through a well planned administration process, followed by a swift exit - after which the company should go forward being mutually owned by its 16 million customers.
Tories accuse Home Office of 'blaming weather' for rise in small boat arrivals, saying Rwanda cancellation real explanation
Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, has issued a response to the Home Office report about the link between weather conditions and small boat crossing numbers. (See 10.10am.) He is accusing the government of “blaming the weather” for numbers rising. He says:
Labour seems to think praying for bad weather is a good border security strategy. This is a weak government, with no plan to end illegal immigrants crossing the channel.
They should never have cancelled the Rwanda removals deterrent before it even started. That’s why 2025 is the worst year in history for illegal crossings - not the weather.
Blaming the weather for the highest ever crossing numbers so far this year is the border security equivalent of a lazy student claiming “the dog ate my homework”.
Starmer accuses SNP of 'years of failure' as he defends Labour's record in Scotland
Severin Carrell
Severin Carrell is the Guardian’s Scotland editor.
Keir Starmer has artfully sidestepped accepting blame for Scottish Labour’s disastrous collapse in the polls and its anticipated defeat in the Hamilton byelection, by focusing instead on his government’s long-term strategy.
The latest Holyrood poll puts Scottish Labour at 19%, only one point ahead of Reform, and well behind the Scottish National party on 33%, with the party battling to avoid losing to the SNP and Reform in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse byelection on Thursday.
That suggests Labour faces a fifth successive defeat in next May’s Holyrood elections. Blame for that is seen to lie squarely with Starmer’s decisions to cut winter fuel payments, his refusal to refund the Waspi pensioners, the increase in national insurance, and the sleaze row over a privileged donor giving him suits and glasses.
In a short interview with BBC Radio Scotland aired this morning, Starmer was pressed to accept that he was to blame for Scottish Labour’s steep slump since its triumph in last year’s general election.
That question bounced off him. Starmer faithfully repeated lines from Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar that only Labour can beat the SNP next May. He said:
Anas Sarwar has turned Scottish Labour around and produced incredible results with us at the general election in 2024.
[I] always said that we would stay focused, and we’ll do that into 2026, but in the end the question at that election is, do we want another term of the SNP after all these years of failure? And that’s the central question next year.
That “stay focused” line belies the fact Starmer is already changing course after Reform’s surge in the English council elections by accepting the case to expand eligibility for the winter fuel payments. There have also been hints the two-child benefit cap will be lifted. Starmer also made a point of launching the UK’s strategic defence review yesterday at a famous military shipyard on the Clyde in Glasgow.
He was asked why the UK government could find money for defence but not to keep pensioners warm in winter, and said:
That’s why I want to ensure more pensioners are eligible, but in terms of defence and security, obviously there is a huge defence spend. I acknowledge that, but we’re living in very dangerous times, and it is really important just to keep absolutely focused on the security and safety of Scotland.
And if - which is what we’re doing everything to avoid - we were drawn into a conflict of any sort, the impact on pensioners, on children, on everybody across Scotland would be profound. And I believe that to deter conflict, you have to prepare for it.
Good weather over past year has made small boat arrivals more likely, Home Office report claims
The Home Office has published claiming that over the past year weather conditions have made small boat crossings more likely.
The Met Office provides the government with a daily assessment of the weather conditions in the Channel, taking into account factors like wind and wave height, and every day is assessed as either red, amber or green. Red days are best for crossings (where the Met Office puts the chances of small boat activity at more than 55%) and green days are the worst (with probability at less than 35%).
The Home Office report says the number of red days has risen in the past year, and that this coincides with small boat arrivals going up too. It says:
The year ending April 2025 had a greater number of red days (190) compared to the previous year (106), and 81% more red days than the average number of days in the years ending April 2022 to 2024. Additionally, January to April 2025 had more than double the number of red days (60) compared to the same period in 2024 (27). This coincides with small boat arrivals being 46% higher in January to April 2025 with 11,074 people arriving to the UK by small boat, compared to 7,567 arrivals during these months in 2024.
This chart shows month by month red day figures, and arrival figures, going back four years.
Red day and arrival figures for small boat crossings Photograph: Home Office
Weather is not the only factor that affects daily crossing numbers and the Home Office report, which has been published without an accompanying news release, does not claim that weather is the only, or even the main, reason for the rise in arrival numbers this year.
The report also points out that number of arrivals per boat is going up. It says:
The average number of people per boat has increased in each year, rising to 54 people per boat in the year ending March 2025, compared with 50 people per boat in the previous year and 29 in the same period ending March 2022.
Yesterday, commenting on the news that the Home Office was about to publish a report making a link between weather and small boat arrival numbers, Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, told the Sun this was a “pathetic attempt to blame the weather for their total loss of border control”.
Government says vital routes will be protected under bus services bill
Vital bus services will be protected from sudden cuts under new legislation, the Department for Transport (DfT) has announced. As PA Media reports, councils in England will put strict requirements in place before “socially necessary” routes can be changed or cancelled, the department said. PA says:
This is aimed at services to locations such as hospitals and schools.
The measure is part of the government’s bus services bill, which passed its second reading in the Commons last night.
This will lead to an overhaul of buses, such as by giving all local transport authorities new powers to run their own services.
The government will also reduce some of the red tape involved in bus franchising, including reducing the minimum period between local areas taking control of services and being allowed to start operations.
Angela Rayner, deputy PM and housing secretary, arriving at Downing Street for cabinet today. Photograph: Gareth Fuller/PA
UK water industry needs ‘fundamental reset’, review finds
The “deep-rooted, systemic” problems in the UK water industry are the fault of companies, the government and industry regulators, according to a much-anticipated review, which was immediately criticised for failing to recommend bold action by sewage pollution campaigners. Sandra Laville has the story here.
Minister rejects Badenoch’s claim that fine for man who set fire to Qur’an revives blasphemy laws
Good morning. Public spending is still the dominant issue at Westminster, with the spending review taking place a week tomorrow, and debate still raging about how the government will fund its defence and welfare plans (although the debate is now not so much whether there will be tax rises, rather how big they will be). But the Conservatives are now trying to revive a culture war issue, accusing Labour of in effect using blasphemy legislation to protect Islam.
Kemi Badenoch has been responding to the case of Hamit Coskun, who was found guilty and fined £240 yesterday for a religiously aggravated public order offence after he set fire to a Qur’an outside the Turkish consulate in London. Sammy Gescoyler has the story here.
As Sammy reports, the judge, John McGarva, said that Coskun’s actions were “highly provocative” and said he was “motivated at least in part by a hatred of Muslims”.
But, in comments written up supportively by the Daily Mail in their splash, Badenoch said the case should go to appeal. She said:
De facto blasphemy laws will set this country on the road to ruin. This case should go to appeal.
Freedom of belief, and freedom not to believe, are inalienable rights in Britain. I’ll defend those rights to my dying day.
Not for the first time, Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, has pushed this even further, telling the Daily Telegraph:
This decision is wrong. It revives a blasphemy law that parliament repealed.
Free speech is under threat. I have no confidence in Two-Tier Keir to defend the rights of the public to criticise all religions.
John Healey, the defence secretary, was on media round duty for the government this morning. Asked about the Tory claims by Sky News, Healey did not want to talk about the case itself, saying this was a matter for the courts. But he rejected the claim that blasphemy laws were coming back, telling Sky:
We don’t have blasphemy laws. We don’t have any plans to reintroduce blasphemy laws.
The National Secular Society is backing Coskun, and Humanists UK have also said they are concerned about yesterday’s verdict.
But, in his ruling, the judge said that burning a religious book and making criticism of Islam or the Qur’an are “not necessarily disorderly”. McGarva went on: “What made [Coskun’s] conduct disorderly was the timing and location of the conduct and that all this was accompanied by abusive language.”
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: Keir Starmer chairs cabinet.
10.15am: Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, gives evidence to the Treasury committee.
11.30am: Shabana Mahmood, justice secretary, takes questions in the Commons.
Noon: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
2.30pm: Yvette Cooper, home secretary, gives evidence to the Commons home affairs committee.
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