Black smoke from Sistine Chapel chimney
No decision on the pope again.
Conclave live: black smoke emerges from chimney as cardinals fail to agree on new pope | Papal conclave
Published: 2025-05-08 11:18:38 | Views: 1
Key events
Wait continues in Vatican - in pictures
How many votes are usually needed to elect pope?
Historically, some of the conclaves were really drawn out: in 13th century, they needed three years, over 1,000 days, to choose Gregory X.
There was also one that ended on the first day, when Julius II in 1503 was elected after just 10 hours.
But looking at the last 150 years, these days it is usually a much shorter process: the longest election, of Pius XI in 1922, took 5 days.
Francis was elected on the second day in 2013, after five rounds of voting.
Benedict XVI needed just four rounds to be confirmed as the new pope in 2005, as did John Paul I in 1978.
A bit more time was needed to confirm John Paul II – three days, eight rounds – in 1978, and John XXIII in 1958, with 11 votes over four days. But then his immediate predecessor, Pius XII was elected after just three rounds.
So, the recent history seems to suggest they usually need 2 or 3 days, and we could be close to that moment.
Or not: since the process is so secretive and there are so many moving elements with a record-high number of cardinals involved in the process this year, there’s no way to predict what happens behind the closed doors.
Two more votes today
There will be two further votes this afternoon and into the evening.
But first, it’s time for lunch!
The cardinals are expected to be back in the Sistine Chapel around 4.30pm local time (3.30pm London).
Black smoke again after morning votes - snap analysis
As per earlier briefings, we were meant to see black smoke only if they failed to choose the pope before the lunch break, so at the conclusion of the two morning rounds.
That takes us to three votes so far, with no conclusion.
Interestingly, we got black smoke much earlier than we expected the morning rounds to conclude, which suggests the 133 cardinals have got the hang of it now and vote much more efficiently than last night.
Black smoke from Sistine Chapel chimney
No decision on the pope again.
The chimney cam is back (and so are the seagulls; I will come back to this later).
Our live stream at the top is showing the chimney, too – although, as explained earlier, there is no guarantee we are going to get any smoke after the first round of voting.
Let’s wait and see.
Who are the favourites?
In yesterday’s blog, we covered the profiles of most of the favourites, including the Italians – Vatican’s secretary of state Pietro Parolin and Bologna archbishop Matteo Zuppi – but also Filipino prelate Luis Antonio Tagle, Peter Turkson of Ghana, Péter Erdő of Hungary…
But then remember the old saying: “he who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal,” as few frontrunners at the start of the process make it through the successive rounds of voting.
You can catch up on their profiles here:
But the Italian media are digging ever deeper to get some new anecdotes and stories about the candidates.
Corriere della Sera reported today on rumours about the rising odds of the Latin patriarch of Jerusalem Pierbattista Pizzaballa, adding that “until a month ago, his cousin, a former footballer from the 70s and an unobtainable Panini [collection] sticker, was better known.”
If you want to see the latest scenes from the Vatican, there is now a live stream showing St Peter’s Square and the chimney atop the Sistine Chapel pinned at the top of this page.
What to expect today?
What makes today slightly more tricky to follow is that while we have four rounds of voting, we may not get smoke after every one of them.
As I said earlier, there will be up four rounds of voting today, expected roughly around 9.30am and midday local time, and then after a long lunch break, again at 5.30pm and 7pm local time.
But according to the Italian media, what we see will depend on the results of the votes inside the Sistine Chapel.
If the cardinals do elect a new pope, we should know straight away, with white smoke.
But if they don’t, we will only see black smoke at the end of each voting session – morning or afternoon – and not after every vote.
This means we will have to spend even more time looking closely at the chimney to get an idea of what is happening inside.
Morning opening: Is today the day?
After a good night sleep in the Santa Marta guesthouse in the Vatican and a morning mass, 133 cardinals electors will soon be back in the Sistine Chapel for another rounds of voting on who should be the next pope.
The electors met earlier to celebrate mass and pray in the Pauline Chapel, and are due to move to the Sistine Chapel for prayers and votes.
There will be up four rounds of voting today, expected roughly around 9.30am and midday local time, and then after a long lunch break, again at 5.30pm and 7pm local time.
If you look at recent history, three of the last five popes were elected on the second day, so it’s fair to say we could see white smoke today. The majority required is 89 votes.
But then again this conclave is like no other, with the largest and most diverse electorate of 133 cardinals from 70 countries, many of whom never met before the events of the last few weeks.
We will bring you all the latest.
It’s Thursday, 8 May 2025, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good morning.
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