AFC championship game: Buffalo Bills v Kansas City Chiefs – live | NFL
Key events
Red, yellow and zebra
If you think the spotlight will be shining bright on these two teams today, consider the referees. The non-Chiefs football world was disgusted last week after a few calls went the way of KC, with accusations of “pampering” Patrick being hurled towards refs and the league. Is he pampered? Well, most fancy QB’s are. More so than most? Maybe. With all the whining this week, it’s curious to note that the NFL assigned Clete Blakeman to head the officials this evening.
Ryan Miller of the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle notes the following:
“Mahomes is 6-5 in games officiated by Blakeman. It’s his second-worst record among 20 referees who have officiated his games. The five losses under Blakeman’s crew account for 21.7% of Mahomes’ 23 career losses.”
And then there’s this piece to read if you want to pursue more statistical fuel:
I saw a crazy stat yesterday on ESPN that I could not believe
the last 4 years, over the Chiefs 11 playoff games:
No, it’s not over, but currently the Eagles look set to represent the NFC at the Super Bowl LIX on 9 February, as they’re currently housing Washington 48-23.
By the way, I had to ask the internet what number LIX is. I really love how the NFL refuses to dumb down their Super Bowl years.
“LIX is the Roman numeral for 59. To convert 59 to Roman Numerals, write it in expanded form, i.e. 59 = 50 + (10 – 1), then replace the converted integers with corresponding roman numerals to get 59 = L + (X – I) = LIX.”
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Three-peats
If you think winning back-to-back Super Bowl games is tough, how about three on the trot? It’s so difficult that it’s never happened. The Chiefs are the ninth team in the Super Bowl era to have a crack at it. Of those eight teams, only the 1976 Pittsburgh Steelers and the 1990 San Francisco 49ers made it to the championship stage. Pittsburgh, who had beaten the Oakland Raiders in back-to-back AFC title games finally succumbed to the silver and black, 24-7, while the Giants famously (for NYG fans) ousted the Niners, in San Francisco with a last second field goal.
Legendary broadcaster Patt Summerall announced “there will be no three-peat” after Bahr connected that afternoon. Can the Chiefs flip that script today?
We’re live!
Hello and welcome to our live coverage of the AFC Championship game, where the Buffalo Bills have schlepped to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs! The winner takes on the winner of the Commanders and Eagles NFC Championship game, which is happening right now, and feel free to hop on over to that until it’s decided. I won’t be offended.
In the meantime, here’s a question for you. Andy Reid is 90-26 in his last seven seasons as head coach of the Chiefs. During that time he is 15-3 in the playoffs including an eight game postseason winning streak. This season, KC won 15 games and lost two, one really: that last loss to the Broncos was a week off. So how is it that a team like this, with two straight Super Bowl victories in the can, is only favored by two points v the Bills? Shouldn’t it be more, considering their track record?
The answer is, as always, the bookies know stuff. And the stuff is, yes, the Chiefs won 15 games, and yes, they find a way to win all the time, with and without the debatable VIP treatment from officials, but this team, they’re really pushing it. They don’t really have enough. They operate at the margins: just look at this statistical season comparison, They are doing it with smoke, mirrors, tremendous coaching and muscle memory.
And this is the narrative that we’ve all been hearing, and there’s a good reason for it: it seems to be true. Here’s a reddit post that says based on point differential, KC should have won 59.73% of their games. Instead, KC won over 88% of their games. This allegedly beats out the 2022 Minnesota Vikings as the most over performing team of all time, at least according to another reddit post. Those Vikings got beat by another over performing team, the New York Giants, who subsequently got destroyed in the divisional round and then fell deep into the abyss.
Now, a week after playing a fake team, KC must play a real one. The Chiefs got lucky by avoiding the Ravens, who are better than the Bills despite their loss in Buffalo last week. That said, Josh Allen also knows how to win with less around him: Buffalo lost their key wideout and some important cogs they could not afford to hang on to. What they have works: Keon Coleman, James Cook and Khalil Shakir.
Basically, KC are due for a whipping, will it be the Bills that stop KC’s playoff win streak? That’s what we’re about to find out. Oh, and I should ask, what do you think? Let me know via “x” or email and we’ll get you in the paper. Otherwise, prepare for the game of the season and stand by for more coverage!
Stick with us!
David will be here shortly. In the meantime, here’s Graham Searles on today’s game:
Story of the season: Just as in 2023, the Chiefs were subpar for much of last year, rolling in the lower gears ready to strike in the playoffs. They remain the best-coached and most well-prepared team in the NFL. Their only stumbling block: the Bills. Josh Allen’s game-sealing touchdown run on fourth and two when the teams met in the regular season was a smudge on an otherwise pristine copybook. So can Buffalo do it again? Can Allen finally make a definitive mark after losing to Mahomes three times in the postseason? The pressure is on in what is sure to be another instant classic.
What Buffalo need to do to win: Run the ball. Kansas City’s defense has a weak spot that can be exploited by James Cook and Allen. The Chiefs have softened up somewhat since limiting the Bills to a respectable 104 rushing yards when they met in Week 11. In their past five games, Kansas City have allowed an average of 150 rushing yards, while the Bills have consistently dominated on the ground, averaging 170 yards in the eight games since beating the Chiefs. Crucially, in the playoffs, the Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos – the NFL’s best and third-best run stoppers in terms of total yards allowed in 2024 – each gave up a season-high total against Buffalo. If that is the damage Cook and Allen can do to opponents who specialise in shutting down runners then the duo will most likely cause Kansas City serious trouble.
What Kansas City need to do to win: Put the ball in Xavier Worthy’s hands. In head coach Andy Reid’s scheme, the speedy wide receiver can stretch Buffalo deep down the field. That should give Mahomes an explosive target to unlock a Bills secondary potentially missing star cornerback Christian Benford, who is in concussion protocol. Reid should also work in creative touches for Worthy when the Chiefs have the ball inside the red zone. He brings a crucial playmaking threat to support the more routine, efficient production of Travis Kelce. The Bills have struggled in tight games in the postseason in recent season, and jitters were evident again last week as Lamar Jackson rampaged in the second half. Reid can rely on Worthy to be an X-factor much as Tyreek Hill was in the Chiefs’ epic divisional-round win over Buffalo in 2022.
Key player for the Bills: Spencer Brown, right tackle. Brown has had a fantastic season protecting his quarterback and run blocking. Allen has been sacked only 17 times across his 19 games this season while Brown and his offensive line helped Buffalo score more than 30 points on 13 occasions. Most exciting for the Bills is that the 6ft 8in, 310lbs bruiser was missing from their regular-season win over the Chiefs. When they need to score, they can rely on Brown to do the dirty work that makes Allen shine.
Key player for the Chiefs: Jaylen Watson, cornerback. The difference for Kansas City could be Watson returning to the secondary. The defensive back, who missed the regular-season loss to the Bills, enjoyed a timely warm-up against Houston. The Chiefs’ coverage is exceptional with Trent McDuffie alongside him. They should allow Steve Spagnuolo to focus his defense on more important matters: stopping the run.
