The three-starred flag representing Syrian rebel groups was hoisted up a pole atop the Syrian embassy in Moscow on Monday — even as Bashar Al-Assad, Syria's brutal dictator, is believed to be in exile in Russia after President Vladimir Putin granted him and his family asylum. 

"This is politics," said Ahamad Al-Gafra, a Syrian national who spoke to Reuters outside of the embassy. "I think Russia has the right to its interests."

Over the past decade, Russia has spent billions of dollars propping up Al-Assad's regime, which gave it a foothold in the Middle East and leases for two strategically important military bases. In exchange, Russia's airforce launched tens of thousands of deadly airstrikes against opposition groups and Syrian cities.

With Russia's help, Al-Assad crushed his opponents, killing hundreds of thousands of Syrians, and forced millions of others to flee. 

Now that the regime has crumbled, the Kremlin finds itself sheltering its one-time strongman and trying to manage ties with the rebel groups that quickly swept in to defeat him. 

Sudden political shift

The rebel push toward the Syrian capital, Damascus, was led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni Islamist group whose origins included links to al-Qaeda.

Russia, along with several other countries, including Canada, consider HTS a terrorist group. But the language being used in Russian media to describe them has softened nearly as quickly as the collapse of the Al-Assad regime. 

Near the beginning of his show on Sunday, Russian television host Dmitry Kiselyov referred to HTS as a terrorist group and former al-Qaeda cell. But by the end of the broadcast, he was referring to the rebels as the "armed opposition."

"Since yesterday, [the language in Russian media] has been pretty unflattering towards Assad," said Anna Matveeva, a visiting senior research fellow with Kings College London. "They are not calling him a bloodthirsty dictator — but not saying that he was a white knight in shining armour, either."

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Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov wouldn't elaborate on the whereabouts of Al-Assad or his wife, Asma, and their three adult children. But Russian state media have reported the family has been granted asylum in the country. 

Al-Assad and his wife, who was raised in London, are sanctioned by several governments, but have strong ties to Russia. 

Russian connections

According to an investigation by the Financial Times, Al-Assad's extended family previously bought at least 18 luxury apartments in a single complex in Moscow in an attempt to safeguard their money during the civil war and rounds of international sanctions.

Al-Assad's three children vacationed at a seaside resort in Crimea as teenagers, after Russia illegally annexed the peninsula in 2014. In 2023, Al-Assad's oldest son, Hafez, graduated from a masters program in mathematics at Moscow State University. His mother, the now former first lady of Syria, was part of a special delegation that travelled to Moscow for the ceremony. 

Matveeva told CBC she met Al-Assad's oldest son in 2019 at a cultural event in Damascus, and recalls speaking to him briefly in Russian.

She says it's not surprising the Kremlin granted Al-Assad's family asylum. The arrangement gave him a quick exit from the country and allowed him to escape the fate that befell Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, who was hanged in 2006, and Libya's Moammar Gadhafi, who was shot by rebels after being ousted from power in 2011. 

"Russia, of course, would be able to control what he does or doesn't do. He wouldn't engage in any political activity unless Moscow thinks it is in their interest."

Any moral argument that Russia shouldn't be harbouring a wanted war criminal is "completely lost" on the Kremlin, Matveeva says. 

"Putin himself is wanted by the International Criminal Court," she said. The Russian government regards "it as just a political label."

On the streets of Moscow, a journalist working for Reuters spoke to a handful of residents. All publicly supported the actions of their government. 

"There is a slogan — 'We do not dump our [allies].' I understand that politics is a complicated and delicate business," said one man, who would only be identified by his first name, Leonid. 

Russia has granted high-profile political asylum before, including for Viktor Yanukovych, the former Ukrainian president who has been convicted of treason for aiding Russian aggression in 2014.

Edward Snowden, the former U.S. National Security Agency contractor accused of leaking classified documents on U.S. government surveillance programs, was granted asylum, too (and got Russian citizenship in 2022).

Russian military and investment in Syria

While the Kremlin hasn't disclosed when Al-Assad arrived or even the last time he met with Putin, officials say everything is being done to try to secure two Russian military bases that it leases from the Syrian government.

Russia has an airbase stationed at Hmeimim in Syria's Latakia province and a naval facility at Tartus on the coast, which is Russia's only repair hub in the Mediterranean.

Moscow frequently uses Syria as a staging area to move its military contractors in and out of Africa. It had an agreement with the now-deposed Syrian regime to lease the spaces until 2066. 

"Now we see that we are in a time of transformation, of extreme instability, so, of course, it will take time and a serious conversation with those who will be in power," Peskov said during a Monday morning press call with journalists. 

Aside from the military bases, Russia has around $20 billion US worth of investments in Syria, including in oil and gas projects.

Matveeva says if Moscow were to lose them, it would claim the Syria endeavour was a setback, but not "catastrophic."

During the civil war, Matveeva says there were few Russian troops inside Syria. Instead, paid fighters from the mercenary Wagner Group were on the ground. 

She says average Russians don't really see Syria as their war, with the military and much of the economy mobilized toward the battle in Ukraine. 

Nikita Smagin, an independent expert on Russia and the Middle East, said that when Russia joined the Syrian conflict in 2015, the Kremlin saw it as a chance to secure a presence in the region amid other global players, such as the U.S.

"Russia saw Syria as a very important asset that helps them to talk with the Western countries, to talk with Middle Eastern countries, to increase their power, to increase their authority," said Smagin, who spoke to CBC News by Zoom from Baku, Azerbaijan.

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Robert Ford, U.S. ambassador to Syria from 2011 to 2014, says that Abu Mohammed al-Golani, leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham alliance, is a prominent player but represents one of several factions in a fractured Syria.

Now, he says, Russia is trying to build connections with HTS, in a relationship that Smagin says would likely be mutually beneficial. 

"I think that generally HTS needs Russia ... because I don't think that there will be a lot of countries that are ready to recognize them as a legitimate power, at least in the short term."

Political pivot

Matveeva says while Moscow officially backed the Al-Assad regime, it would have also had communication channels with various factions in Syria's rebel forces. 

Just as Russia is now strengthening its ties with the Taliban in Afghanistan — which it removed from its lists of terrorist organizations earlier this fall — Matveeva says Russia will pivot its Syria policy as the situation on the ground changes. 

"Russian officials will try to work out a new political line," she said. 

Putin, like other heads of state, is watching to see whether HTS can marshal Syria toward a stable government. If so, the Kremlin may say it didn't like the way the group came to power, but will move to form diplomatic ties, as it is in Russia's interest. 

If the sudden political change creates a power vacuum where violence ensues, Matveeva says Russia will probably claim Al-Assad was the best of a bunch of bad options. 

"If they all start fighting each other, then Russia will say, 'Hey, OK, our bastard was still a bit better than ... when nobody has any control.'"