How did it come to this?
The roots of the debacle lie in President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to dissolve parliament in June and the resulting snap election, which returned a parliament divided into three roughly equal groups with no majority.
That meant Barnier’s minority centrist and centre-right government was, in effect, at the mercy of the left-leaning New Popular Front NFP) and the far right National Rally (RN), which together had enough MPs to unseat it.
On Monday, Barnier said he would ram the social security part of the budget through without a parliamentary vote – a procedure which gives opposition MPs the chance to challenge the government with no-confidence votes.
Both the left and the far right have pledged to do so this afternoon, after a debate due to begin at 4pm local time (3pm GMT). A vote on the motion thought most likely to pass – there are two – is expected at about 7pm.
No new elections can be held until June, and Macron – who is thought unlikely to resign himself, at least for the time being – will face the daunting task of appointing a new government with parliament more bitterly divided than ever.
There’s a more in-depth explainer on how the crisis came about, why it’s happening now, and Macron’s possible options here:
You can also read more about the crisis here and, in a standback, big-picture analysis, here.
