Tensions have ratcheted up a notch or two from the British perspective given current events in Lebanon. Defence Secretary John Healey left the Labour Party conference in Liverpool early to chair a meeting of COBR (or sometimes COBRA), the Government’s Civil Contingencies Committee that is convened to handle matters of national emergency or major disruption.

Clearly the Lebanon conflict, with perhaps 16,000 British nationals resident in that country, falls within that remit. The Prime Minister has already called on UK citizens to “leave immediately” while they still can by commercial means as fighting intensifies between Israel and Hezbollah. The situation is indeed looking increasingly dire.

The immediate and publicly announced result of the COBR meeting is that Britain will send an additional 700 troops to Cyprus where they will stand by in case they are needed.

This is likely to be 40 Commando Royal Marines, becoming firmly established as the UK’s go-to unit for such contingencies. Elements of the unit are currently recovering from Australia (some by business class air – nothing is too good for our boys and girls!) where they have been on exercise.

Other assets have already arrived in-country at the British Embassy in Beirut, including personnel from the Border Force, Foreign Office, and UK special forces (SF). The latter’s presence could be crucial if push comes to shove, especially if it comes to an evacuation across Lebanon’s beaches out to sea as some have speculated.

Other British military units presence include British ships RFA Mounts Bay and T45 destroyer HMS Duncan, plus RAF Typhoons and an assortment of helicopters at RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus and on the ships.

Contingency planning for such evacuations of nationals has long been practiced by the British armed forces. Back in the day the various possibilities were contained in a series of Joint Service Plans (JSPs) which were occasionally dusted off, updated, and practiced. The last evacuation of British nationals in Lebanon in a similar context took place in 2006 during the Israeli-Hezbollah war, code-named Operation Highbrow, when some 4,500 of the 22,000 estimated to be living there at the time were taken to Limassol in Cyprus, mainly by sea. Many were then flown in chartered flights to the UK.

Something similar could well happen again this time if matters continue to deteriorate. Media outlets are already referring to a modern Dunkirk, but of course it’ll be nothing like that if it happens; it will be neither on the same scale as the 1940 evacuation of British and French troops from France, nor will (hopefully) any other actors trying to prevent it taking place.

Meanwhile there is no sign of the Israeli aerial assault on Hezbollah slackening. The IDF has just announced that it is continuing to mount “extensive strikes” against the terrorist group, and the response going the other way has been anaemic at best.

Hezbollah seems to have believed its own rhetoric and has bitten off more than it can chew. Its forces and weaponry have been severely pummelled to the extent that some are saying that it has been set back at least twenty years. Appeals to their backers Iran to intervene directly by attacking Israel seem to have fallen on deaf ears in Tehran. The Iranians know that a general attack on the Israelis could well trigger a confrontation with the USA, and that’s the last thing that they need.

So Hezbollah is on its own at the moment. Its pain is entirely self-inflicted. So we wait to see what happens next. There is a distinct possibility that Britain will start evacuating its citizens to safer ground, but the die is not yet cast. The next few days might prove decisive.

Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former Army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk