For many in Ukraine's front-line cities, enduring nightly attacks from Russian drones and missiles may be less terrifying than giving in to anything Vladimir Putin proposes during his upcoming summit in Alaska with Donald Trump. 

"Almost every day, we hear Shaheds," said Arthur Korniyenko, referring to the Iranian-made drones laden with explosives launched by Russia — some nights in the hundreds.

Korniyenko is a software developer based in the battle-scarred city of Zaporizhzhia, just 30 kilometres from the Russian front. A Russian strike on the region injured at least 12 people on Sunday.

He says his company, Genova Web Art, has lost colleagues to Russian attacks. One of his 20 employees who was killed in fighting two years ago. 

He told CBC News he's extremely skeptical that Russia's president wants to end the war or intends to offer any substantial concessions in his upcoming summit with U.S. President Trump on Friday.

"I hope Donald Trump will understand that Putin lied to him ... and you can't negotiate with people like [Putin], " he said. 

Ukrainians and their supporters, especially in Europe, are apprehensive about how the negotiations in Alaska, in whatever from they take, will play out. They fear the summit represents a moment of peril rather than an opportunity to forge a lasting peace driven by shared democratic values and the sanctity of international borders. 

Perilous moment

Trump's comments Monday did little to mitigate those fears, as he appeared to suggest Ukraine's territorial integrity could be bartered away like a real estate deal. 

"There will be some swapping and changes of land," he said in Washington, D.C., as he went to explain how Putin's forces have seized prime oceanfront property along the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

"It's always the best property," he added.

Other observers frame the Alaska gathering as the latest act in a well-rehearsed performance, where Russia feigns interest in peace while preparing its next offensive.

In the aftermath of his infamous Oval Office blowout with Trump in February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy offered Russia an unconditional 30-day ceasefire, only to have Putin ignore it. 

More recently, Trump, who has often appeared to treat Putin with unusual deference, has said he was "disappointed" in Russia's leader and even vowed to impose stiff economic sanctions within two weeks if Putin didn't make moves to end the war. 

But now, Trump has agreed to hold this summit — without making Putin give up anything in return.

Uncompromising demands

Russia's demands to end the war have remained largely unchanged since the early days of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.  

They comprise assuming full control over four eastern Ukrainian regions and Crimea, including territory that Ukrainian forces still hold; limits on the size of Ukraine's army; a ban on ever joining NATO or the European Union; and what Russia calls the "de-Nazification" of Ukraine, a vague term that's believed to mean the installation of a Russian-friendly president and government.

"All the framing is coming from Russia," says Roman Waschuk, a former Canadian ambassador to Ukraine, who still lives and works in the capital, Kyiv. "There is no U.S. proposal, no multilateral plan. Everything is about accommodating, interpreting or responding to what Russia wants."

Russia currently occupies around 20 per cent of Ukraine, while Ukraine holds only a tiny portion of Russian territory in Kursk.

"It brings back memories with regard to Munich [in] 1938, when the fate of the country was decided over the heads of this country," said Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of the committee on foreign policy and inter parliamentary relations in Ukraine's parliament.

The year before the start of the Second World War, Nazi Germany signed a deal with Britain, France and Italy that ultimately led to the disintegration of Czechoslovakia, without the Czech government present.   

Many historians see it as the culmination of the British and French policy of appeasing Hitler that strengthened the Nazi regime and contributed to the start of the war in the fall of 1939.

"When you start negotiations with the idea of territorial swaps, you're just repeating Putin's narratives — you already agree to something which doesn't belong to you," said Merezhko.

Negative outcomes

While the summit's agenda is shrouded in secrecy, several possible outcomes are circulating among diplomats, analysts and Ukrainians alike. None are straightforwardly positive for Ukraine.

Trump may push for a ceasefire that freezes the current lines of control. Ukraine would retain sovereignty over most of its territory, but not the Russian-held areas of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. The war stops, but the occupation remains.

Waschuk, the retired Canadian diplomat, sees this as the most likely compromise scenario. 

"It's unsatisfactory, but maybe vaguely tolerable. It allows Ukraine to survive militarily and continue toward the EU. But it doesn't stop Russia. It just delays the next phase."

For Korniyenko, the software developer, such a deal amounts to a betrayal: "We tried freezing things before," he said. "And what happened? More invasion. More death."

Russian troops seized Crimea and the eastern Donbas region in 2014, and a series of accords known as the Minsk agreements were later negotiated, with Western help, to reduce — but not permanently end — the fighting.    

Eight years later, Russia launched its full-scale invasion.

Waschuk believes the risk of Ukraine being pressured to accept an imposed deal is high, possibly with threats of reduced military aid from the United States.

"It's already happening," he says. "We're just seeing the trappings of diplomacy over something that's already in motion."

Such a move could fracture the Western alliance, embolden Russia and humiliate Ukraine, he says. 

Worse, it could permanently damage trust between Kyiv and Washington, leaving Ukraine increasingly dependent on assistance from Europe and Canada to continue fending off the Russian invasion.

In a social media post Monday night, Prime Minister Mark Carney underscored that Ukraine must be a party to any ceasefire negotiations and "that decisions on the future of Ukraine must be made by Ukrainians."

A Putin victory

In the most cynical interpretation, the summit itself is already a victory for Putin. 

By standing as an equal with a U.S. president, Putin breaks out of international isolation and signals to his domestic audience that he's still a global player.

"Putin doesn't need a result," said Korniyenko. "He just needs the meeting. That's already a win for his ego."

Even if no formal agreement is reached, the mere shift in tone from Washington regarding the future of the war could have lasting consequences. 

Merezhko, the Ukrainian MP, says most of his countrymen have already resigned themselves to fighting on, regardless of the outcome of the Alaska gathering.

"Our only option — if we don't want to be subjugated and destroyed by Russia as a nation, as a state — is to continue to fight no matter what, because the alternative ... is total annihilation," he told CBC News. 

Waschuk echoes his concern. 

"The danger isn't only in a signed deal. It's in the subtle downgrading of commitment — the quiet turning-away."